Abstract:
A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of
Tabora Region in Tanzania was conducted in 2009. Four village clusters were selected out of which,
three villages represent Millennium Villages Program (MVP) namely Mbola, Mpenge and Isila from Uyui
District. One village namely Tumbi from Tabora Urban bordering the MVP was also selected. Both
primary and secondary data were collected using different methods including structured questionnaire
interviews, focus group discussion, documentary review and field observations. Structured
questionnaire interviews were administered to 7% of all farmers selected at random from the four
villages and 30 research and extension officers obtained through accidental purposeful sampling.
Simple regression and t-test analyses of numeric data for rainfall and temperature collected over the
last 35 growing seasons were performed using Microsoft Excel and Statistical Analysis System
respectively. Non-numeric data were coded, summarized and analyzed using Statistical Package for
Social Sciences spreadsheet. Results indicate that the overall rainfall amount was found to decline
while distribution was varying both in time and space. Inter-seasonal dry spells between January and
February appeared to increase both in duration and frequency. Temperature has shown an increasing
trend. Minimum temperature increased faster (R2 = 0.68, p<0.001) while maximum temperature increased
gradually (R2 = 0.24, p<0.01). Farmers, research and extension officers also perceived these changes by
the help of a series of indicators. Nevertheless, perception on the climate change indicators varied
depending on the type of livelihood activity most affected. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are
possible shrinking of the growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to common food and
cash crops, increased insects and pests and eventually low income and food insecurity. This study
concludes that there is strong evidence demonstrating the vulnerability of rain fed agriculture to
negative impacts of climate change and variability in the study area. It is suggested that there is a need
for multi-level interventions on adaptation to climate change and variability taking into account a wide
range of stakeholder involvement.
