Climate scenario and location substitution approach in analyzing the impacts of climate change in smallholder farming systems: case study of Pangani River Basin and Pemba, Tanzania

Abstract

Most studies analyzing the impacts of climate change are centered on the use of sophisticated data manipulation and complicated models not easily understood by smallholder farmers and planners in developing countries. This study use meteorological data collected from three climate phenomenon; high, medium and low rainfall locations and farm level data collected through Focus Group Discussions (FGD) in the corresponding 11 villages in Pangani river basin (PRB) and Pemba in Tanzania to explain the cost effective methodology for analyzing the impacts of climate change. Using mult-criteria method and substitution approach that switches across locations, this method can be used to establish the most likely situation in smallholder farming communities the case of climate changes. The paper conclude that although the model cannot be used to generalize the outcomes across wide planning horizons but its simplicity make it ideal to planners and smallholder farmers in developing countries.