Vulnerability of rain-fed paddy producing households to climate change and variability: a case of North 'B' district, Unguja

Abstract

Climate change and variability is one of great challenges facing households in Tanzania. The main objective of this study was to evaluate vulnerability of farm households engaged in rain-fed paddy production to climate change and variability in Zanzibar's North 'B' District. Specifically, the study aimed at determining farm households vulnerability to the effect of climate change and variability; examining the temperature and rainfall trend and to determine factors affecting paddy production. Primary data was collected using pre-structured questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Secondary data for climate were collected from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency office (TMA). The livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) was used to analyse households' vulnerability; the climatic data were analysed using the MAKESENS model and multiple linear regression was used to analyse factors affecting paddy production. Results show that the overall LVI score for both Shehias was 0.47 while the LVI-IPCC was 0.080, indicating that households in the study area were most vulnerable with (LVI) while moderately vulnerable under the (LVI-IPCC). With respect to rainfall, results were not statistical significant but with the negative slopes for annual and seasonal precipitation. The average surface maximum and minimum temperatures for January-February were found to be statistically significant (p<0.005) with positive slope. Examination of factors influencing paddy production showed that cultivated land size, labour and type of fertilizer used were statistical significant. The study concludes that, decreasing of rainfall and increasing of maximum and minimum temperature are matter of concern and the effect of climate changes appears to take its toll with enormous implications in farm management. This is in terms of inconsistency rainfall patterns. It is recommended that, the government should pay more attention to the other methods like irrigation used by rain fed farm households in adapting the effect of climate change and variability.