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Assessing the potential impacts of four climate change scenarios on the discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania using the SWAT Model

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dc.contributor.author Lubini, Alain
dc.contributor.author Adamowski, Jan
dc.date.accessioned 2014-08-13T11:13:44Z
dc.date.available 2014-08-13T11:13:44Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.identifier.citation Birhanu, B. (2009). Hydrological modeling of the Kihansi river catchment in South Central Tanzania using SWAT model. International Journal of Water Resources and …. Retrieved from http://www.academicjournals.org/journal/IJWREE/article-full-text-pdf/3BA2A951368 en_GB
dc.identifier.uri http://www.taccire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/286
dc.description.abstract The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to explore the potential impact of four Climate change scenarios on discharge from the Simiyu River in Tanzania, located in the Lake Victoria watershed in Africa. The SWAT model used in this study was calibrated and verified by comparing model output with historic stream flow data for 1973 1976 as well as 1970 1971. SWAT was operated at daily and monthly time steps during both calibration and verification. For the daily time step verification, the model had a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) of 0.52andacorrelation coefficient (R2) of 0.72. For the monthly time step verification, the recorded NSE andR2 values were 0.66 and 0.70. In developing climate change scenarios within the general patterns defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, predicted increases in CO2 concentrations were implemented within the constraints of the model’s parameterisation by raising, in a seasonally specific manner, the values of two proxy parameters daily baseline temperature and precipitation. Under all scenarios, Simiyu River discharge increased (24 45%), showing the highest increase in the rainy season (March to May), with the greatest increase occurring during the rainy season (March to May). Discharge was influenced to a much greater degree by increases in precipitation rather than by temperature. The Increase in river flow predicted by the model suggests that the potential increase in heavy flood damage during the rainy season will increase, which could, in turn, have significant adverse effects on infrastructure, human health, and the environment in the watershed. The SWAT predictions provide an important insight into the magnitude of stream flow changes that might occur in the Simiyu River in Tanzania as a result of Future climatic change. en_GB
dc.description.sponsorship The advice of Prof. Willy Bauwens of Vrije University is appreciated. The financial assistance of the Flemish Interuniversity Council, the IUPWARE program, the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, and an NSERC Discovery Grant held by Jan Adamowski are acknowledged en_GB
dc.language.iso en en_GB
dc.publisher International Journal of Water Sciences en_GB
dc.relation.ispartofseries ;10.5772/56453
dc.subject Climate Change, Modelling, River Flow, SWAT, Simiyu River, Africa en_GB
dc.title Assessing the potential impacts of four climate change scenarios on the discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania using the SWAT Model en_GB
dc.type Article en_GB

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  • Climate Change impacts
    All information related to the effects and impacts of climate and weather variability --- be it on agriculture, environment, food security, transport, health etc

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