Assessing vulnerability of food availability to climate change in Hai district, Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change has a large effect on agriculture sector and, consequently, on the food available for residents of Hai District and other regions of Tanzania. Based on four decades of climate data, this study assessed the impacts of climate change and its potential vulnerability on food availability in Hai District, Kilimanjaro region. The results from this study suggest an association between food crop production and variation in climate (temperature and rainfall) in Hai District. Considering the aspect of rainfall and temperature, we demonstrate that rainfall and temperature have significant relationship with maize and bean outputs. The rainfall had a strong positive association with maize and beans production and whereas temperature had inverse relationship with maize and beans yields. With the annual loss $0.04 million and $0.01 million per year from cattle and goats/sheep respectively and the additional annual loss of $29 million and $10.8 million from maize and bean crops respectively in Hai District during years of severe and prolonged droughts, our study highlighted how severe droughts can dramatically affect agriculture production and food security in the area. To mitigate climate change and provide effective adaptation measures, it is imperative to develop a broader research framework, which integrates bio-physical and socioeconomic aspects of food systems which addresses its vulnerability and thereby improve food security.